Agency said the Fed rate hike September or the Asian currency pressure may become the new norm

Agency said the Fed rate hike: September or the Asian currency pressure may become the new norm of CITIC Leon: the Fed’s September rate hike or the worst time has past the reporter Ting Yudan reported in Hongkong CITIC CLSA Economic Research Director Fei Siwei (Eric Fishwick) in Lyon in September 19th Annual Investor Forum said the Fed chairman Yellen last month in the Jackson Hole Central Bank Conference the speech on the line that September is likely to raise interest rates because the main point, the decisive factors of employment rather than economic growth data, even if the rate hike is expected to fall in September, will be in the December FOMC meeting announced interest rates. "The Fed needs to show its determination to normalize interest rates." Chairman and chief executive officer Shi Lihong (Jonathan Slone) said. Asian currencies under pressure, specifically, the bank recently released a report that, after years of interest rate, the Federal Reserve in 2017 is expected to be in March and September to raise interest rates two times, and the completion of the current round of the last hike in the first half of 2018. As the dollar continues to strengthen, Asian currencies, including the yuan, will bear some pressure, it is expected to reach the 6.85 level against the dollar by the end of this year, the end of the year fell to 7.3 in. The bank said China more than expected to successfully control the trend of capital outflows, so the short-term RMB $completely with the "decoupling" will not happen, but the depreciation of the RMB against a basket of currencies will continue. In addition, the competitive devaluation of Asian currencies may become a new normal in the context of a strong dollar. "The worst is over." Feisi Wei said that the bank has raised the forecast for the next year, the global economic situation, and that the rally will continue in 2018. The bank said that despite the current global trade growth is still weak, but there is reason to believe that the situation will improve next year. British retreat European influence on the global economy is less than expected, and weak economic growth in the United States a negative impact on global commodity prices than previously expected, therefore, emerging market commodity exports to the economy will be in the first half of next year as the global trade growth out of recession. CITIC Lyon is expected in 2016 and 2017, economic growth in the United States were 1.5% and 1.9%; Europe remained at 1.4% level; the Japanese were 0.6% and 1.5%; Chinese mainland were 6.4% and 6.7%; 1% and 1.7% for the Hongkong China. In addition, the commodity price is expected next year will be an increase of 20%, which by the end of 2016 Brent crude oil will be $40 a barrel by the end of 2017 to $60 a barrel; the price of gold by the end of 2016 to $1300 an ounce to 2017 by the end of the new $1400 per ounce. Commodity prices will increase the level of inflation, is expected next year, the global inflation level will be higher than this year. Optimistic about China’s development in reference to the rapid expansion of China’s current credit, Fei Wei responded that China is currently in the cycle of rapid debt expansion, and want to adjust the overall economic structure, the inevitable相关的主题文章: